A major snow drought is hitting many parts of the Mountain West, and that has big implications for the looming wildfire season.
At less than 140,000 square miles, snow cover across the region was the lowest ever recorded on February 1 in the satellite record, which goes back to 2001. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) call it the “worst snowpack on record.”
“The situation with the western snowpack is quite dire in just about all areas,” said Basil Newmerzhycky, lead meteorologist at the Great Basin Coordination Center in Salt Lake City. “From southern Idaho, through all of the Intermountain West, including parts of the Sierra, the Colorado Rockies, and especially down into the higher terrain of Arizona and New Mexico, where snowpack is only about 20% of normal.”
For higher elevations, Newmerzhycky said, there’s a direct relationship between snowpacks and fire activity: the less snow there is, the sooner it melts off, allowing fuels to dry more quickly and “become susceptible to lightning strikes and ignitions.”
But for lower elevation grass and brushlands, he said less precipitation can mean less growth of the fine, easy-to-burn fuels.
“Sometimes you get a tale of two cities when you get into the following fire season,” Newmerzhycky explained.
For now, the National Interagency Fire Center’s monthly fire potential outlooks shows average potential for major wildfires for nearly all of the West through May.
Newmerzhycky said that leading up to President’s Day weekend, parts of the Mountain West could see some rain and snow..
“And that could open up the door for a bigger Pacific storm to move into the Sierra and into much of the Intermountain West,” Newmerzhycky said. “Especially some of the higher terrain in northern Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, parts of Idaho by this upcoming holiday weekend.”
Longer term weather models show the possibility of a stormy period in March, but those lengthier forecasts need to be taken with “a grain of salt,” he cautioned, and it will take a lot of moisture to make up for the missing snow.
“Unless there's a major, major change in the pattern that lasts not just for two or three weeks, but maybe for a month or two,” he added. “The main point is looking for an earlier than normal start to the fire season.”
Alarm bells were also going off in the leadup to the 2025 wildfire season. Vast swaths of the West showed above average potential for major blazes, and in May, Jim Wallman – a meteorologist with the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise – said the summer was “looking grim” for the West.
The 2025 fire season was made historic by the devastating Los Angeles fires, but in terms of overall acreage it was well below average, according to the recently released annual report. While 5.1 million acres burned, roughly a third less than the 10-year average, the total number of fires – nearly 77,850 – was well above average.
Driven by the catastrophic California blazes, the 18,385 total structures destroyed last year was the highest figure since 2018.
Wallman explained that well-timed precipitation across the West accounted for the lower-than-expected acreage burned last season. But a lighter season one year can mean a lot of unburned fuel ready for the following season. He said that’s is a concern in the Great Basin region and elsewhere in the West, but also in the plains states.
Like Newmerzhycky, he’s worried about the snowpack and its implications for the looming fire season. But Wallman also noted the expected uptick in precipitation in the forecast, saying that “a Miracle March…could really alleviate a lot more of the concern.”
“As bad as things are, things can change based on what happens over the next few months in the spring,” he added. “Similar to what we learned last year.”
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Boise State Public Radio, Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Northern Colorado, KANW in New Mexico, Colorado Public Radio and KJZZ in Arizona as well as NPR, with support from affiliate newsrooms across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and Eric and Wendy Schmidt.
