For all the chaos a Trump administration could bring to Washington, water leaders in the West think the nitty gritty of managing the Colorado River will be largely unaffected.
“I think if you're using history as your guide, the election probably doesn't mean a whole lot.”
That’s John Entsminger, who runs the Southern Nevada Water authority.
"We have seen both Democratic and Republican administrations over the last two and a half decades have pretty consistent Colorado River policy."
On the campaign trail, Trump talked about gutting or entirely dissolving SOME federal agencies, but Entsminger thinks that WON’T happen to the ones that manage western water.
“I expect there to be a Department of the Interior. I expect there to be a Bureau of Reclamation, because someone has to actually operate the dams on the Colorado River.”
Other top water negotiators agreed... regardless of the president, western Water management has mostly been left in the hands of technical experts. Even during Trump’s FIRST term. Tom Buschatzke, the top water official in Arizona… says states and the feds were able to reach some big water conservation deals last time Trump was in charge.
I’m actually taking the optimistic outlook. We’ve been able to continue on the momentum and keep continuity across changes at that level
But what about climate change? It’s warmed the planet and SUPERCHARGED the two-decade megadrought that is shrinking Colorado River supplies. Trump and his allies have denied that climate change even exists. But Buschatzke says the realities of less water? Are harder to deny.
I don't think that the debate over climate change is going to change the view of the federal administration about the need to deal with a smaller river, or how we're going to get there, I just don't see it happening.
For all their confidence about working with the federal government, the states can’t figure out how to agree amongst THEMSELVES. The seven states are split into two groups, and those camps each submitted a SEPARATE proposal to the government about how to manage the river. Elizabeth Koebele studies water policy at the University of Nevada, Reno.
"I worry that when our house isn't in order inside the basin, Then these bigger, national level, ‘big-P Political’ changes are more likely to impact policy making, or more likely to add more stress."
The states SAY they’re working to find agreement, even though they appear far apart.
"The story remains the same, we're committed to coming up with a solution.”
Gene Shawcroft is Utah’s top water negotiator.
"This is a seven state solution, not an administration solution, if you will. And so there's no waffling in our commitment to come up with a solution."
In the past, the federal government has set deadlines, and threatened to bring down the hammer on states if they DON’T set aside their differences. JB Hamby, California’s water negotiator, says that could happen with this NEXT administration.
"Are we going to have this be tested in another venue that's either through some sort of unilateral federal action or by the courts, or can we work together to accomplish something as states, which so far has not happened? "
Pressure for the states to come to an agreement is only mounting. Until then, demand for water will remain steady. On the other side of the equation, climate change will keep sapping the river of water, and the next president is poised to enact policies that could make climate change worse.